Confidence Scores and the Illusion of Precision

When 0.87 confidence becomes "86% certain he is lying"

Ai governance regulation — Confidence Scores and the Illusion of Precision
Key takeaways
  • Publishing numerical confidence scores to non-technical decision-makers without uncertainty bands.
  • Using AI confidence thresholds to justify high-consequence decisions without human review.
  • EU AI Act risk classification and what it means for confidence-scored outputs.
Risk signals
  • Confidence scores presented without uncertainty bands or reducer explanations.
  • Decision thresholds hardcoded to confidence values without human review triggers.
Action items
  • Always present confidence alongside its uncertainty band and active reducers.
  • Treat any confidence score above 0.85 for high-risk outputs as requiring human review.

A confidence score presented without its uncertainty band and reducer list becomes a claim of certainty. This post explores the liability of precision theatre in AI outputs.

Key Analysis

Publishing numerical confidence scores to non-technical decision-makers without uncertainty bands. Using AI confidence thresholds to justify high-consequence decisions without human review. EU AI Act risk classification and what it means for confidence-scored outputs.

Risk Signals

Confidence scores presented without uncertainty bands or reducer explanations. Decision thresholds hardcoded to confidence values without human review triggers.

Action Items

Always present confidence alongside its uncertainty band and active reducers. Treat any confidence score above 0.85 for high-risk outputs as requiring human review.

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